Friday 30 January 2015

Tomgram: Andrew Bacevich, A Hug for the Muddlers | TomDispatch

Tomgram: Andrew Bacevich, A Hug for the Muddlers | TomDispatch



After a State of the Union Address, we’re used to a rebuttal from the other party.  This year, two of them turned out to be on the schedule.  There was the one you probably missed -- “You see, growing up, I had only one good pair of shoes. So on rainy school days, my mom would slip plastic bread bags over them to keep them dry...” -- because who doesn’t switch to a little actual entertainment after an hour listening to any president?  That Republican “response” was delivered by new Iowa Senator Joni Ernst (she of the pig castration ads). The second one, not to be given until March 3rd, will be by the latest Republican senator andcongressman, a fellow named Bibi Netanyahu. He will appear before a joint session of Congress, highlights from which will be all over the news undoubtedly showing both chambers rising repeatedly for standing ovations -- some 29 times on the last such occasion -- while the Israeli prime minister eviscerates President Obama’s negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program.  Previews indicate that Netanyahu will also encourage Congress to pass further sanctions against Iran to ensure that those talks will be deep-sixed and the way paved for just what we all need: one more war in the Middle East.  A second audience will also be listening: Israeli voters, just two weeks before they go to the polls to decide whether Bibi is to remain in office.
All in all, call it an illuminating State of the Union moment, starting with the president’s fantasy address.  It was, after all, filled with proposals that might have been meaningful in year two of his first term but that now have as much chance of being enacted into law as the National Zoo in Washington does of housing a unicorn.  There was, however, one arena in which Obama might have assumed that something he said wouldn’t just be his own version of a Netanyahu-style election speech, laying the groundwork for the next Democratic candidate in 2016.  That, of course, was foreign policy.

NASA Satellite Climatology Data | Energy Matters

NASA Satellite Climatology Data | Energy Matters



NASA has at least four satellites measuring key climatic data:
  1. Temperature
  2. Clouds
  3. Sea ice
  4. Snow cover
  5. CO2
In this post the NASA satellite data is reviewed and what it tells us about climate change is evaluated.

Wednesday 28 January 2015

How To Mitigate Climate Change | Energy Matters

How To Mitigate Climate Change | Energy Matters



The University of Notre Dame maintains a “Global Adaptation Index”, a quantitative measure of how exposed different countries are to the predicted ravages of climate change. The index runs from 0 to 100, with zero representing maximum exposure and 100 representing no exposure (i.e. it’s backwards, but we’ll live with that). The methodology it uses to generate the numbers is described in this recent article and summarized thus:
The Notre Dame-Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) is a free open-source index that shows which countries are most exposed to climate change impacts and their current vulnerability to the disruptions that will follow, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, cyclones, security risks and so forth, as well as their readiness to leverage private and public sector investment for adaptation actions. ND-GAIN brings together 45 indicators to measure the 178 UN countries from 1995 to the present.
The Huffington Post recently plotted the Notre Dame numbers on a map of the world and published it in an article entitled The Countries That’ll Survive Global Warming. Here’s the map:

The Archdruid Report: The One Way Forward

The Archdruid Report: The One Way Forward: All things considered, 2015 just isn’t shaping up to be a good year for believers in business as usual. Since last week’s post here on The...

Tuesday 27 January 2015

Tomgram: John Feffer, Europe's End? | TomDispatch

Tomgram: John Feffer, Europe's End? | TomDispatch



Remember the glory days of the 1990s, when our interconnectedness -- the ever-tighter embrace of Disney characters, the Swoosh, and the Golden Arches -- was endlessly hailed?  It was the era of “globalization,” of Washington-style capitalism triumphant, and the planet, we were told, would be growing ever “flatter” until we all ended up in the same mall, no matter where we lived.  Only a few years later in a twenty-first-century world that, from Ukraine to Libya, Syria to Pakistan, seems to be cracking open under the strain of religious-political conflicts of every sort, isn't it curious how little you hear about that interconnectedness?  And yet, through time as well as space, we couldn’t be more linked (and not just online), as the Charlie Hebdo murders and the response to them indicated.
Think of the Parisian killers of that moment as messengers from the European past.  After all, the place we have long called “the Middle East” was largely a post-World War I European creation.  The map of the area was significantly drawn, and a number of the countries in the region cobbled together, by and for the convenience of European colonial powers France and England.  Jump slightly less than a century into the future and what one set of powers created, a successor power, the last “superpower” on planet Earth, helped blow a hole through in 2003 with its invasion of Iraq -- and the damage is still spreading.

Monday 26 January 2015

The Broken Template | KUNSTLER

The Broken Template | KUNSTLER



The more detached from reality American culture becomes the more strictly ceremonial leadership gets, as illustrated by the raft of bromides Barack Obama floated past the assembled vassalage of government last week in another grand effort to avoid the necessities of the moment.
Those necessities include freeing a hostage public from the tyrannical clutches of corporate despotism — the evil empire of big boxes, big burgers, big pharma, Big Brother — and the atrocious rackets fostered by them that masquerade as an economy. The template of the life we have known is broken and the pieces within are flying apart, and no amount of wishing or promising can keep them going. If this society is even going to survive, the people have to smash their way out of this template prison, probably against the efforts of the people and organizations now running it merely for their own benefit.

Tomgram: Miller and Schivone, Bringing the Battlefield to the Border | TomDispatch

Tomgram: Miller and Schivone, Bringing the Battlefield to the Border | TomDispatch



Predator drones, tested out in this country’s distant war zones, have played an increasingly prominent role in the up-armoring of the U.S.-Mexican border. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) launched its first Predator in 2004, but only really ramped up drone use in March 2013.  There have been approximately 10,000 Predator flights along that border since. The agency had plans to expand its ten-Predator fleet -- nine after a $12 million maritime drone crashed off the California coast, as those robotic planes are wont to do -- to 24. It was going to dispatch some of them to the Canadian border as well. (You never know, after all, what dark forces might descend on us from the chilly north.) The CBP even got into the chummy habit of encouraging interagency drone-addiction by loaning its Predators out to the FBI, the Texas Department of Public Safety, and the U.S. Forest Service, among other places. You might say that the CBP was distinctly high on drones.



Cont... 

ClubOrlov: Panic in Kiev?

ClubOrlov: Panic in Kiev?: The following article appeared briefly at this URL on censor.net.ua and was quickly pulled down. Ironic? It would seem so. My translation....

Sunday 25 January 2015

Quidnon: Boats for post-cheap oil survival

Quidnon: Boats for post-cheap oil survival: This is a guest post from Ian Swan. As some of you know, I have sold my shoreside residence, and for more than a year now I have been li...

Thursday 22 January 2015

Epsilon Theory - Salient Partners | The Clash of Civilizations

Epsilon Theory - Salient Partners | The Clash of Civilizations



Lots of quotes this week, particularly from my two favorite war criminals – Sam Huntington and Henry Kissinger. Everyone has heard of Kissinger, fewer of Huntington, who may have been even more of a hawk and law-and-order fetishist than Kissinger but never sufficiently escaped the ivory towers of Harvard to make a difference in Washington. Like me, Kissinger bolted academia at his first real opportunity for a better gig and never looked back, which is probably why I always found him to be so personally engaging and fun to be around. Sam Huntington … not so much.
But Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations” argument is not just provocative, curmudgeonly, and hawkish. It is, I think, demonstrably more useful in making sense of the world than any competing theory, which is the highest praise any academic work can receive. Supplement Huntington’s work with a healthy dose of Kissinger’s writings on “the character of nations” and you’ve got a cogent and predictive intellectual framework for understanding the Big Picture of international politics. It’s a lens for seeing the world differently – a lens constructed from history and, yes, game theory – and that’s what makes this a foundational topic for Epsilon Theory. 

Wednesday 21 January 2015

A new theory of energy and the economy – Part 1 – Generating economic growth | Our Finite World

A new theory of energy and the economy – Part 1 – Generating economic growth | Our Finite World



How does the economy really work? In my view, there are many erroneous theories in published literature. I have been investigating this topic and have come to the conclusion that both energy and debt play an extremely important role in an economic system. Once energy supply and other aspects of the economy start hitting diminishing returns, there is a serious chance that a debt implosion will bring the whole system down. In this post, I will look at the first piece of this story, relating to how the economy is tied to energy, and how the leveraging impact of cheap energy creates economic growth.
Trying to tackle this topic is a daunting task. The subject crosses many fields of study, including anthropology, ecology, systems analysis, economics, and physics of a thermodynamically open system. It also involves reaching limits in a finite world. Most researchers have tackled the subject without understanding the many issues involved. I hope my analysis can shed some light on the subject.

Made in China – Meet the World’s First 3D-Printed Apartment Building | Liberty Blitzkrieg

Made in China – Meet the World’s First 3D-Printed Apartment Building | Liberty Blitzkrieg

The following story is simply fascinating. Provided this and similar structures are able to stand the test of time, it will have unbelievably deflationary consequences for home prices across the world.
I first highlighted this company, WinSun, last year in the piece: Zillow Study Shows 1 in 3 Homes are Unaffordable, Meanwhile Vacation Home Sales Soar. Here’s an excerpt:

Fact-Checking Obama's State Of The Union Speech | Zero Hedge

Fact-Checking Obama's State Of The Union Speech | Zero Hedge

We already did our post-mortem of last night's teleprompted annual evangelizing of Barack Obama's "straight to folks" propaganda that would make both Goebbels and Dzerzhinsky blush. So instead of repeating ourselves, here is AP with its own fact check of what can only be dubbed lie after lie, courtesy of the president of the "free world" and the head of the "most transparent administration ever."
* * *
AP looks at some of Obama's claims, and the facts and the political climate behind them:

Meet Amber Lyon: Former Reporter Exposes Massive Censorship at CNN | Liberty Blitzkrieg

Meet Amber Lyon: Former Reporter Exposes Massive Censorship at CNN | Liberty Blitzkrieg

I saw first-hand that these regime claims were lies, and I couldn’t believe CNN was making me put what I knew to be government lies into my reporting.
- Amber Lyon
The Amber Lyon story is just the latest in a series of articles that expose the total Joseph Goebbels like censorship rampant in mainstream media today.  The first one I posted several weeks ago exposed how the NY Times basically just regurgitates whatever government officials tell them, while the other showcased how anNPR reporter covering D.C. had to leave and do her own thing out of frustration.  This is precisely why alternative media sites are taking off.  They provide the only outlets left for genuine journalism.

Market Mayhem | Energy Matters

Market Mayhem | Energy Matters


Most of us won’t have noticed much market mayhem going on in our daily lives, distracted by terrorism in the heart of Europe. An instantaneous jump of 30% in the value of the Swiss Franc last week means very little to most people. If only we had stashed a few Swiss Francs in advance.
Most readers of this blog should be aware that the price of oil has more than halved in the last 6 months rendering much of the global oil industry unprofitable which is an unprecedented disaster for all of those dependent upon oil in their daily lives. But what is the underlying cause of all this market mayhem and does it really matter?  The S&P 500 is after all riding high and the US$ keeps marching towards new highs against the € and other currencies. This post takes a look at a number of indicators searching for answers which are elusive.

Tuesday 20 January 2015

ClubOrlov: Whiplash!

ClubOrlov: Whiplash!: Over the course of 2014 the prices the world pays for crude oil have tumbled from over $125 per barrel to around $45 per barrel now, and ...

Monday 19 January 2015

27 Facts That Show How The Middle Class Has Fared Under 6 Years Of Barack Obama

27 Facts That Show How The Middle Class Has Fared Under 6 Years Of Barack Obama

During his State of the Union speech on Tuesday evening, Barack Obama is going to promise to make life better for middle class families.  Of course he has also promised to do this during all of his other State of the Union addresses, but apparently he still believes that there are people out there that are buying what he is selling.  Each January, he gets up there and tells us how the economy is “turning around” and to believe that much brighter days are right around the corner.  And yet things just continue to get even worse for the middle class.  The numbers that you are about to see will not be included in Obama’s State of the Union speech.  They don’t fit the “narrative” that Obama is trying to sell to the American people.  But all of these statistics are accurate.  They paint a picture of a middle class that is dying.  Yes, the decline of the U.S. middle class is a phenomenon that has been playing out for decades.  But without a doubt, our troubles have accelerated during the Obama years.  When it comes to economics, he is completely and utterly clueless, and the policies that he has implemented are eating away at the foundations of our economy like a cancer.  The following are 27 facts that show how the middle class has fared under 6 years of Barack Obama…



Cont...

A Solemn Pause | KUNSTLER

A Solemn Pause | KUNSTLER



Events are moving faster than brains now. Isn’t it marvelous that gasoline at the pump is a buck cheaper than it was a year ago? A lot of short-sighted idiots are celebrating, unaware that the low oil price is destroying the capacity to deliver future oil at any price. The shale oil wells in North Dakota and Texas, the Tar Sand operations of Alberta, and the deep-water rigs here and abroad just don’t pencil-out economically at $45-a-barrel. So the shale oil wells that are up-and-running will produce for a year and there will be no new ones drilled when they peter out — which is at least 50 percent the first year and all gone after four years.



cont....

The Keystone XL Pipeline | Energy Matters

The Keystone XL Pipeline | Energy Matters



Lobbyists are mobilizing to advance it. Environmentalists are mobilizing to stop it. The newly-elected Republican House has already voted to approve it. So has the newly elected Republican Senate. Obama has threatened a veto. The media are having a field day. What’s so important about Keystone XL?
Well nothing, really. Keystone XL is basically just another pipeline; a little longer and larger than most, but not unusually so, and it goes nowhere pipelines don’t already go. All it does is increase the capacity of the existing Keystone pipeline system, which has already transported over 550 million barrels of Canadian heavy crude from Alberta to the US. The crude Keystone XL delivers will make no difference to US crude imports; it will simply displace crude imports from elsewhere. And if Keystone XL doesn’t get built the crude it would have carried will go somewhere else, meaning that no CO2 emissions would be saved by not building it. (Although building it probably would save CO2 emissions because much of the Canadian crude that now moves south on trucks and rail tankers would pass through Keystone instead.)

Quidnon: Creature Comforts

Quidnon: Creature Comforts: Sailboats, even relatively spacious boats the size of QUIDNON, are often somewhat lacking in creature comforts. Since they are partially ...

Friday 16 January 2015

Shale Debt and its Implications

Shale Debt and its Implications

We have all been held spell bound by the recent precipitous plunge in oil prices. The implications are the stuff of conjecture, conspiracy theories and just plain interesting conversation. Adding to this conversation, it would appear that another troubling trend has possibly emerged.

The Oil Price Fall: An Explanation in Two Charts

The Oil Price Fall: An Explanation in Two Charts



Don't worry.  It's not complicated.
I offer a simple explanation for the recent fall in oil prices in just two charts.  
Oil prices move up and down in response to changes in supply and demand.   If the world consumes more oil than it produces, the price goes up.  If more oil is produced than the world consumes, the price goes down.

The Clash of Civilizations | KUNSTLER

The Clash of Civilizations | KUNSTLER

The big turnout in Paris was bracing but it also might reveal a sad fallacy of Western idealism: that good intentions will safeguard soft targets. The world war underway is not anything like the last two. Against neo-medieval barbarism, the West looks pretty squishy. All of the West is one big fat soft target.

The Archdruid Report: March of the Squirrels

The Archdruid Report: March of the Squirrels: Prediction is a difficult business at the best of times, but the difficulties seem to change from one era to another. Just now, at least f...

Oil and the Economy: Where are We Headed in 2015-16? | Our Finite World

Oil and the Economy: Where are We Headed in 2015-16? | Our Finite World

The price of oil is down. How should we expect the economy to perform in 2015 and 2016?
Newspapers in the United States seem to emphasize the positive aspects of the drop in prices. I have written Ten Reasons Why High Oil Prices are a Problem. If our only problem were high oil prices, then low oil prices would seem to be a solution. Unfortunately, the problem we are encountering now is extremely low prices. If prices continue at this low level, or go even lower, we are in deep trouble with respect to future oil extraction.
It seems to me that the situation is much more worrisome than most people would expect. Even if there are some temporary good effects, they will be more than offset by bad effects, some of which could be very bad indeed. We may be reaching limits of a finite world.

Oil Production Vital Statistics – January 2015 | Energy Matters

Oil Production Vital Statistics – January 2015 | Energy Matters



This is the first in a monthly series of posts chronicling the action in the global oil market in 12 key charts.
  • The oil price crash of 2014 / 15 is following the same pace of the 2008 crash. The 2008 crash was demand driven and began 2 months ahead of the broader market crash.
  • The US oil rig count peaked in October 2014, is down 127 rigs from peak and is falling fast.
  • Production in OPEC, Russia and FSU, China and SE Asia and in the North Sea are all stable to falling slowly. The bogey in the pack is the USA where a production rise of 4 Mbpd in 4 years has upset the global supply dynamic.
  • It is unreasonable for the OECD IEA to expect Saudi Arabia to cut production of cheap oil in order to create market capacity for expensive US oil [1].
  • There are likely both over supply and weak demand factors at play, weighted towards the latter.

Bit Tooth Energy: Tech Talk - Projections 2

Bit Tooth Energy: Tech Talk - Projections 2



It is the end of another year, or more optimistically the start of a new one. Last year I was tempted to make a couple of predictions for the future. And while I can make the case that they were not too wrong, they did not include the drop in oil prices, which has now taken the price of our local gas to below $1.85 a gallon. China has, in recent months, seemed less belligerent about claiming large sections of the China Seas. Whether this has anything to do with the relative success of rigs that have drilled in those waters is something that still remains an unknown. 

RESOURCE CRISIS: The oil price collapse: did the Saudis make a smar...

RESOURCE CRISIS: The oil price collapse: did the Saudis make a smar...: Saudi Arabia's data on oil production (all liquids). Data from EIA Arthur Berman recently wrote this on the oil price collap...

RESOURCE CRISIS: Where have our dreams gone? The death of Western l...

RESOURCE CRISIS: Where have our dreams gone? The death of Western l...: The novel by Vladimir Dudintsev "Not by bread alone" was published in 1956 (*). It was a big hit in the Soviet Union with it...

ClubOrlov: Peculiarities of Russian National Character

ClubOrlov: Peculiarities of Russian National Character: Zimnik ← Ancient Slavic god Zimnik: a squat old man, long hair the color of snow, wears a white coat, always barefoot. Carries an iron ...