The recent failure of North Korea’s missile tests reaffirms the deficiencies of its ballistic and nuclear programs. Perversely, it also increases the risk of an imminent greater destabilizing behavior.
On April 15th, Pyongyang attempted and failed a test launch of a land-based ballistic missile that, if properly deployed, is capable of hitting a target 2,400 to 3,200 miles away.
One week later, leader Kim Jong Un conducted a second missile test via submarine. While the follow-up was more successful than the first (which exploded within seconds of lift-off), it only traveled for a mere 30 km — shy of the standard 300 km needed for a ballistic missile launch to be considered successful.
Outwardly, these two failures appear to demonstrate that Pyongyang’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs are still relatively unsophisticated and incomplete. These conclusions, however, are superficial. In reality, both launches have revealed the increasing capability and ambition of North Korea’s atomic efforts.
They have also — through their publicly lackluster outcomes — elevated the short-term risk of further sporadic, destabilizing military actions from the Kim regime, with damaging implications for international security and finance.
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