There has probably been no greater investing mantra placed upon an industry in recent memory than the now reflexive, as well as defensive response of “It’s different this time” when questioning anything Social. Trying to understand the business model along with its metrics, valuations and more is not only arduous, the response seems more akin to pulling teeth without anesthesia for those selling it, defending it, or both.
Those that have been with me for a while know I have little use for the whole “social media” thing. Although, while I don’t use any of it myself, that doesn’t mean I don’t see value and innovation in many of them. Again, I don’t use them, nor have accounts. However, I do have share buttons on my own site for those that do. So let me be clear:
It’s the valuations along with the metrics of their underlying business models and just how effective they are for those that are in business, along with the ROI for those businesses whether monetarily or in other ways for their time and money is what I take issue with. For as I’ve stated over and over again: “The only people making money in social media – are those selling you social media.”
When it comes to everything social, today, recent memory is about the last 5 to 6 years. Or: post financial crisis. Basically, everything you know, or think you know about valuations, their coming into IPO existence, as well the metrics they stood on (and still use) as to “prove” those valuations has all been within the most adulterated markets in history fueled by the advent of “free money” made possible by The Fed. via QE. This is a quantitative, as well as a qualitative fact. Period.
Never before has this (QE) been done in the history of the markets. So obscene has the valuation process become along with the metrics used to support it is why, “It’s different this time” was born. And precisely one might ask “why was that?” Well, just as a teenager who can no longer defend what they’re arguing and immediately cuts off further discussion with, “Because! Just because!” followed with “You just don’t get it!” When you’re wearing a $3K power-suit, “It’s different this time” sounds more grown up. Yet it serves the same purpose: It cuts off discussion leaving all the vagaries well intact. Nevertheless, there’s really no difference except for the wording.
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