When it comes to the epic bubble in China's economy, it really boils down to one - or rather two - things: a vast debt build up (by now everybody should be familiar with McKinsey's chart showing China's consolidated debt buildup) leading to a just as vast build up of excess capacity, also known as capital stock accumulation. And/or vice versa.
It is how China resolves this pernicious, and self-reinforcing feedback loop, that is a far greater threat to the global economy than even what happens to China's bad debt (China NPLs are currently realistically at a 10-20% level of total financial assets) or whether China successfully devalues its currency without experiencing runaway capital flight and a currency crisis.
One bank that is now less than optimistic that China can escape a total economic meltdown is the Daiwa Institute of Research, a think tank owned by Daiwa Securities Group, the second largest brokerage in Japan after Nomura.
Actually, scratch that: Daiwa is downright apocalyptic.
In a report released on Friday titled "What Will Happen if China's Economic Bubble Bursts", Daiwa - among other things - looks at this pernicious relationship between debt (and thus "growth") and China's capital stock. This is what it says:......
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