Wednesday 16 August 2017

Trashing the Conventional Wisdom on North Korea

The American Conservative:



Nuclear weapons have become the great international equalizer. During the Cold War, the U.S. and Soviet Union couldn’t afford to risk a conventional war. If one side started losing, the temptation to escalate would be enormous. The results would be ruinous even for the nominal winner.
Since then, China probably has edged into the deterrence club, even though its nuclear arsenal is far inferior to that of America. And maybe India. No one expects New Delhi to attack the U.S., but some Indians noted its value as a means to deter any attempt by Washington at coercion.
Now North Korea is knocking on the club door. Pyongyang is a good example of the aphorism that even paranoids have enemies. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has fallen dramatically behind the South, which enjoys roughly 40 times the economic strength and twice the population, plus a host of other advantages. Add in Seoul’s ally, the U.S., and the DPRK has no chance in any conventional conflict.

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