The projected total US debt will be $30 trillion within 10 years, using the CBO’s own numbers. But the CBO also makes the rosy assumptions that there will be no recessions and that GDP will grow at a 4% nominal rate.
Now, that’s possible; I'm inclined to haircut it a bit.
If you asked me to bet the “over/under” on the debt in 2027, I would bet the over at $35 trillion.
After the next recession the deficit will be $30 trillion within 4–5 years and then grow from there at a rate of anywhere from $1.5 to $2 trillion per year (I covered my team’s calculations in this letter).
Is it any wonder why I’m so concerned about pensions?
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