Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Slovenia Calls on Army, Private Security Forces, Ponders Article 222 for EU Military Aid to Halt Flow of Migrants

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Slovenia Calls on Army, Private Security Forces, Ponders Article 222 for EU Military Aid to Halt Flow of Migrants



Slovenia has a population of 2 million people. But in the last 10 days alone, 84,000 migrants have flooded the country.



In response, Slovenia has called out the Army and private security forces to help maintain order.



That did not stem the tide, so Slovenia Considers Calling for EU Military Aid. 

 Slovenia, the tiny Balkan state struggling to cope with the migration crisis, has raised the idea of invoking a never-before-used “solidarity clause” in the EU treaties to formally request European aid and military support.



Ljubljana [Slovenia's capital] recently floated the option of triggering Article 222, which enables military aid to EU nations overwhelmed by disasters, according to two officials familiar with the talks.



It indicates the drastic steps under consideration to deal with a tide of asylum seekers arriving in Europe. One Slovenian government official said invoking Article 222 was a “viable option” as a last resort. 



Alarmed by the potential for Slovenia pulling the bloc’s emergency cord, EU officials have sought to head off a request, in part by arranging for EU countries to provide 400 police to help Ljubljana manage the crisis.



Miro Cerar, Slovenia’s prime minister, had warned the EU would “fall apart” unless the “unbearable” pressure was not eased promptly. His foreign minister Karl Erjavec hinted at the potential for a fence, saying “impediments” could be considered to stem the cross-border flows.



The solidarity clause states that EU member states “shall mobilise all the instruments at its disposal, including the military resources” in the event the requesting country is subject to a terrorist attack or is the victim or a man-made or natural disaster.



It has never been invoked. 



Some EU officials are keen for the principle not to be tested.



Barbed exchanges between the leaders of Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia have raised concerns in Brussels that tensions could open old wounds from the bloody break-up of Yugoslavia and rekindle various territorial disputes.

Slideshow



Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission president, described the worst finger-pointing as “the politics of panic”.

Politics of Panic



In actuality, Slovenia should have panicked long ago. The EU is offering 400 police officers. Lovely. As noted earlier, 84,000 migrants flooded Slovenia, a country of 2 million, in less than two weeks.



Let's do the math on that population inflow: 84,000 / 2,000,000 is a population growth of 4.2% in 10 days.



Were the US population to grow at the same rate, the US population would grow by over 13 million, 13,393,800 to be precise.



Imagine what would happen if 13.4 million migrants flooded entry points of San Diego California, El Paso Texas, and Miami Florida in the same 10 days.



Do you think there would be panic? I sure as hell do.



By the way, there are another 2 million refugees in Turkey,  many of them making their way towards the border with Greece, 



Peak Merkel



This crisis will be the undoing of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. I labeled the process "Peak Merkel".



Joining me in similar analysis, Financial Times writer Gideon Rachman says The End of the Merkel Era is Within Sight.



Rachman is a lot more forgiving of her errors than I am, but his central idea is correct. I beat him to the punch by eight days with Swamped By Stupidity; Peak Merkel.



Finally, Juncker himself might be in for a bit of panic given this warning shot: Poland Elects Rightwing Eurosceptic, Anti-Immigration Government. 



Mike "Mish" Shedlock